Improving the prediction of long-term readmission and mortality using a novel biomarker panel.
J Card Surg
; 36(11): 4213-4223, 2021 Nov.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34472654
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
Several short-term readmission and mortality prediction models have been developed using clinical risk factors or biomarkers among patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The use of biomarkers for long-term prediction of readmission and mortality is less well understood. Given the established association of cardiac biomarkers with short-term adverse outcomes, we hypothesized that 5-year prediction of readmission or mortality may be significantly improved using cardiac biomarkers. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
Plasma biomarkers from 1149 patients discharged alive after isolated CABG surgery from eight medical centers were measured in a cohort from the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group between 2004 and 2007. We assessed the added predictive value of a biomarker panel with a clinical model against the clinical model alone and compared the model discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.RESULTS:
In our cohort, 461 (40%) patients were readmitted or died within 5 years. Long-term outcomes were predicted by applying the STS ASCERT clinical model with an AUROC of 0.69. The biomarker panel with the clinical model resulted in a significantly improved AUROC of 0.74 (p value <.0001). Across 5 years, the hazard ratio for patients in the second to fifth quintile predicted probabilities from the biomarker augmented STS ASCERT model ranged from 2.2 to 7.9 (p values <.001).CONCLUSIONS:
We report that a panel of biomarkers significantly improved prediction of long-term readmission or mortality risk following CABG surgery. Our findings suggest biomarkers help clinical care teams better assess the long-term risk of readmission or mortality.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Readmissão do Paciente
/
Ponte de Artéria Coronária
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article