Future scenarios for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: an age-structured model.

ABSTRACT

The recent lifting of COVID-19 related restrictions in Switzerland causes uncertainty about the future of the epidemic. We developed a compartmental model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland and projected the course of the epidemic until the end of year 2020 under various scenarios. The model was age-structured with three categories children (0-17), adults (18-64) and seniors (65- years). Lifting all restrictions according to the plans disclosed by the Swiss federal authorities by mid-May resulted in a rapid rebound in the epidemic, with the peak expected in July. Measures equivalent to at least 90% reduction in all contacts were able to eradicate the epidemic; a 56% reduction in contacts could keep the intensive care unit occupancy under the critical level and delay the next wave until October. In scenarios where strong contact reductions were only applied in selected age groups, the epidemic could not be suppressed, resulting in an increased risk of a rebound in July, and another stronger wave in September. Future interventions need to cover all age groups to keep the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic under control.