Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.
Int J Epidemiol
; 51(1): 75-84, 2022 02 18.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34718594
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group.METHODS:
Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level.RESULTS:
In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI) -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years.CONCLUSIONS:
All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Systematic_reviews
Limite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article