The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves.
Pathogens
; 10(11)2021 Nov 11.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34832619
ABSTRACT
Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) continues to be the gold standard for molecular surveillance of the pandemics but other assays such as mutation genotyping can be used to reduce costs and allocated time. This study investigates the efficiency of mutation screening tests compared to WGS and their predictive value to anticipate future waves. A very high degree of fidelity for this type of assay was found, regardless of the method used. The positive predictive value (PPV) of 4/5 markers was over 95% for the detection of Alpha and Delta variants. By estimating the prevalence of the Alpha and Delta strains using genotyping assays and fitting the data to a mathematical model, a five week period between the point of exponential growth of variant prevalence and a drastic increase in case numbers was found. For that reason, raising awareness about the efficacy of mutation screening could help authorities adopt better measures in the future.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article