Predicting COVID-19 mortality risk in Toronto, Canada: a comparison of tree-based and regression-based machine learning methods.
BMC Med Res Methodol
; 21(1): 267, 2021 11 27.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34837951
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) presents an unprecedented threat to global health worldwide. Accurately predicting the mortality risk among the infected individuals is crucial for prioritizing medical care and mitigating the healthcare system's burden. The present study aimed to assess the predictive accuracy of machine learning methods to predict the COVID-19 mortality risk.METHODS:
We compared the performance of classification tree, random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), logistic regression, generalized additive model (GAM) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to predict the mortality risk among 49,216 COVID-19 positive cases in Toronto, Canada, reported from March 1 to December 10, 2020. We used repeated split-sample validation and k-steps-ahead forecasting validation. Predictive models were estimated using training samples, and predictive accuracy of the methods for the testing samples was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Brier's score, calibration intercept and calibration slope.RESULTS:
We found XGBoost is highly discriminative, with an AUC of 0.9669 and has superior performance over conventional tree-based methods, i.e., classification tree or RF methods for predicting COVID-19 mortality risk. Regression-based methods (logistic, GAM and LASSO) had comparable performance to the XGBoost with slightly lower AUCs and higher Brier's scores.CONCLUSIONS:
XGBoost offers superior performance over conventional tree-based methods and minor improvement over regression-based methods for predicting COVID-19 mortality risk in the study population.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article