In a world called catastrophe: the impact of COVID-19 on neighbourhood level crime in Vancouver, Canada.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To test for statistically significant change in crime rates across neighbourhoods in Vancouver, Canada, resulting from social restrictions within the natural experiment of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Differential local Moran's I is used to identify statistically significant change in crime patterns across Vancouver's neighbourhoods because of COVID-19. These changes are analysed with variables from social disorganization theory constructs using ANOVA. RESULTS: At the neighbourhood level, all crime types have significant change during COVID, but not always at the city level. Different neighbourhoods have different changes in crime despite these changes appearing to be constant at the city level; local effects asre important to consider. Variables representing the constructs of social disorganization theory are able to predict these changes. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 has changed the patterns of crime in Vancouver, but most often in theoretically expected ways. Local changes are critical to understand crime during a pandemic.