Nomogram based on inflammation-related markers for predicting survival of patients undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous nomograms for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) did not include the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) or platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR). This study aimed to establish an effective nomogram capable of estimating the association between preoperative inflammatory factors and overall survival (OS) of HCC patients after hepatectomy. AIM: To analyse the factors affecting the prognosis of HCC and establish a nomogram. METHODS: A total of 626 HCC patients (410 training set patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University and 216 validation set patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China) underwent hepatectomy from January 2014 to December 2017 and were followed up every 3-6 mo. The nomogram was based on OS-related independent risk factors identified by Cox regression analysis. The C-index, calibration curve, and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the nomogram's accuracy. RESULTS: The 1-, 2- and 3-year OS rates were 79.0%, 68.0% and 45.4% in the training cohort (median OS = 34 mo) and 92.1%, 73.9% and 51.2% in the validation cohort (median OS = 38 mo). Higher α-fetoprotein [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.812, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.343-2.444], NLR (HR = 2.480, 95%CI 1.856-3.312) and PLR (HR = 1.974, 95%CI 1.490-2.616), tumour size ≥ 5 cm (HR = 1.323, 95%CI 1.002-1.747), and poor differentiation (HR = 3.207, 95%CI 1.944-5.290) were significantly associated with shortened OS. The developed nomogram integrating these variables showed good reliability in both the training (C-index = 0.71) and validation cohorts (C-index = 0.75). For predicting 1-, 2- and 3-year OS, the nomogram had AUCs of 0.781, 0.743 and 0.706 in the training cohort and 0.789, 0.815 and 0.813 in the validation cohort. The nomogram was more accurate in predicting prognosis than the AJCC TNM staging system. CONCLUSION: The prognostic nomogram combining pathological characteristics and inflammation indicators could provide a more accurate individualized risk estimate for the OS of HCC patients with hepatectomy.