Mechanism-based pharmacodynamic model for propofol haemodynamic effects in healthy volunteers☆.

BACKGROUND: The adverse haemodynamic effects of the intravenous anaesthetic propofol are well known, yet few empirical models have explored the dose-response relationship. Evidence suggests that hypotension during general anaesthesia is associated with postoperative mortality. We developed a mechanism-based model that quantitatively characterises the magnitude of propofol-induced haemodynamic effects during general anaesthesia. METHODS: Mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR) and pulse pressure (PP) measurements were available from 36 healthy volunteers who received propofol in a step-up and step-down fashion by target-controlled infusion using the Schnider pharmacokinetic model. A mechanistic pharmacodynamic model was explored based on the Snelder model. To benchmark the performance of this model, we developed empirical models for MAP, HR, and PP. RESULTS: The mechanistic model consisted of three turnover equations representing total peripheral resistance (TPR), stroke volume (SV), and HR. Propofol-induced changes were implemented by Emax models on the zero-order production rates of the turnover equations for TPR and SV. The estimated 50% effective concentrations for propofol-induced changes in TPR and SV were 2.96 and 0.34 µg ml-1, respectively. The goodness-of-fit for the mechanism-based model was indistinguishable from the empirical models. Simulations showed that predictions from the mechanism-based model were similar to previously published MAP and HR observations. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a mechanism-based pharmacodynamic model for propofol-induced changes in MAP, TPR, SV, and HR as a potential approach for predicting haemodynamic alterations. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02043938.