Spatial analysis of factors impacting lower limb major amputation rates in Hungary: Is geography partially destiny?

ABSTRACT

Background: Lower limb major amputations represent a substantial public health burden in Hungary, where previous research revealed markedly high rates with significant spatial variations. Therefore, we aimed to assess to what extent healthcare and socio-economic factors in the local environment explain the regional disparity. Patients and methods: In a retrospective cohort analysis, based on the healthcare administrative data of the Hungarian population, lower limb major amputations were identified from 1st of January 2017 to 31st of December 2019. The permanent residence of the amputees on the local administrative level (197 geographic units) was used to identify potential healthcare (outpatient care, revascularisation activity) and socio-economic (educational attainment, local infrastructure and services, income and employment) determinants of amputations. Spatial effects were modelled using the spatial Durbin error regression model. Results: 10,209 patients underwent 11,649 lower limb major amputations in the observational period. In our spatial analysis, outpatient care was not associated with local amputation rates. However, revascularisation activity in a geographic unit entailed an increased rate of amputations, while revascularisations in the neighbouring areas were associated with a lower rate of amputations, resulting in an overall neutral effect (ß=-0.002, 95% CI -0.05 - 0.04, p=0.96). The local socio-economic environment had a significant direct inverse association with amputations (ß=-7.45, 95% CI -10.50 - -4.42, p<0.0001) . Our spatial model showed better performance than the traditional statistical modelling (ordinary least squares regression), explaining 37% of the variation in amputations rates. Conclusions: Regional environmental factors explain a substantial portion of spatial disparities in amputation practice. While the socio-economic environment shows a significant inverse relationship with the regional amputation rates, the impact of the local healthcare-related factors (outpatient care, revascularisation activity) is not straightforward. Unravelling the impact of the location on amputation practice requires complex spatial modelling, which may guide efficient healthcare policy decisions.