Nomogram for predicting risk factor of urosepsis in patients with diabetes after percutaneous nephrolithotomy.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Urosepsis is an infectious complication after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). This study aimed to analyze the perioperative factors related to urosepsis after PCNL for upper urinary calculi and establish a nomogram to predict the probability of postoperative urosepsis based on the risk factors. METHODS: The Clinical data of one-stage PCNL for upper urinary stones in patients already diagnosed with type 2 diabetes between June 2010 and June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into two groups according to whether urosepsis occurred after surgery, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses evaluated the risk factors for urosepsis. Moreover, the corresponding nomogram prediction model was determined by the regression coefficient. RESULTS: All 366 patients with diabetes underwent one-stage PCNL. Seventy-one (19.4%) patients had urosepsis after surgery, and their hospitalization time was longer than that of patients without urosepsis. Moreover, the incidence of non-infection-related complications was higher. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed four independent risk factors associated with postoperative urosepsis, including positive urine nitrite (odds ratio [OR] = 3.326, P = 0.007), positive urine culture (OR = 2.213, P = 0.023), intraoperative hypotension (OR = 8.968, P < 0.001), and staghorn calculi (OR = 3.180, P = 0.002). The above independent risk factors were used as variables to construct the nomogram. The nomogram model was internally validated. The calculated concordance index was 0.824. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was performed (P = 0.972 > 0.05). The area under the curve of this model was 0.831, indicating that the nomogram model had good accuracy in predicting the probability of urosepsis in patients who underwent PCNL with diabetes and had good consistency with the actual risk. CONCLUSION: Positive urine culture, positive urine nitrite, staghorn calculi, and intraoperative hypotension were independent risk factors for urosepsis in patients who underwent one-stage PCNL with diabetes. The new nomogram could accurately assess the risk of urosepsis after PCNL in patients with diabetes.