Combining hunting and intensive carcass removal to eradicate African swine fever from wild boar populations.

ABSTRACT

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly lethal viral disease, which affects different species of wild and domestic suids. After its human-caused introduction in Georgia in 2007, the ASF virus has found a new ecological reservoir in the large and continuous wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations of Eurasia, spreading both eastward and westward. ASF has also breached into the intensive pork meat production system. Although the disease has no zoonotic potential, its consequences on wild boar populations and the economic losses for the pig industry have been dramatic. As no vaccine or effective medical treatment is available to reliably protect wild boar or domestic pigs against ASF, eradication efforts are mainly based on intensive wild boar hunting and on removing a significant portion of the infected wild boar carcasses, which are the main environmental virus reservoir. Both strategies have produced poor results, so far, and ASF is becoming endemic. We compared wild boar hunting and carcass removal as alternative and combined strategies for the eradication of ASF in its endemic state, using a spatially explicit individual-based model, which incorporated the demography and spatial dynamics of a wild boar population, the spatial epidemiology of ASF in its endemic phase, and a management system acting for the eradication of the disease from the population. When no eradication effort was simulated, ASF exhibited a clear and strong tendency to persist and remain endemic in the wild boar population. Both hunting and carcass removal, when used alone, provided either a low power to remove the virus from the population, or required unrealistic field effort. The best performing scenario corresponded to the combined use of a 30% annual hunting rate and of an intensive carcass removal, during a 2-month period in late winter (February-March). Eradicating ASF from wild boar populations remains a hard task. Managers should promote a drastic increase in the effort dedicated to systematically identify and remove as many infected wild boar carcasses as possible from the affected areas, with at least 5-15 carcasses removed for each 100 hunted wild boar.