Statistical Modeling of Sensitive Period Effects Using the Structured Life Course Modeling Approach (SLCMA).

ABSTRACT

Sensitive periods are times during development when life experiences can have a greater impact on outcomes than at other periods during the life course. However, a dearth of sophisticated methods for studying time-dependent exposure-outcome relationships means that sensitive periods are often overlooked in research studies in favor of more simplistic and easier-to-use hypotheses such as ever being exposed, or the effect of an exposure accumulated over time. The structured life course modeling approach (SLCMA; pronounced "slick-mah") allows researchers to model complex life course hypotheses, such as sensitive periods, to determine which hypothesis best explains the amount of variation between a repeated exposure and an outcome. The SLCMA makes use of the least angle regression (LARS) variable selection technique, a type of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) estimation procedure, to yield a parsimonious model for the exposure-outcome relationship of interest. The results of the LARS procedure are complemented with a post-selection inference method, called selective inference, which provides unbiased effect estimates, confidence intervals, and p-values for the final explanatory model. In this chapter, we provide a brief overview of the genesis of this sensitive period modeling approach and provide a didactic step-by-step user's guide to implement the SLCMA in sensitive- period research. R code to complete the SLCMA is available on our GitHub page at https//github.com/thedunnlab/SLCMA-pipeline .