The forecasting model research of rural energy transformation in Henan Province based on STIRPAT model.

In order to find the model of rural energy transformation in Henan Province. In this paper, Tapio decoupling model is employed to investigate the pivotal factors affecting rural power consumption (PC) and total energy consumption (TEC) in Henan Province. In addition, PSO-BP is used to predict the values of each influencing factor in 2020-2025. Last, the STIRPAT model is used to forecast TEC and PC from 2020 to 2025 based on the data of rural energy consumption in Henan Province from 2009-2019. The results show that other factors besides population promote TEC and PC to different degrees. Moreover, the influencing factors, TEC and PC, form a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion. Then, TEC and PC consumption show an increasing trend year by year in 2020-2025. It is worth noting that after 2022, the variation of PC is greater than that of TEC. To sum up, improving rural electrification level is a necessary way to realize its low-carbon energy transition.