[Factors associated with an unfavorable evolution in patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and followed up in primary care in 2020]. / Factores asociados con una evolución desfavorable en pacientes diagnosticados de COVID-19 y seguidos en atención primaria en 2020.

AIM: To know the factors associated with an unfavorable evolution (UE) of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 with total or partial follow-up in primary care. DESIGN: A case series. SETTING: Urban health center. PARTICIPANTS: By systematic sampling, patients ≥18 years, diagnosed with COVID-19, with analytical confirmation, in 2020 and followed up by their family doctors, were selected. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: Dependent variable: hospital admission or death due to COVID-19. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: age, sex, medical background, clinical data and treatments related to the disease. Statistical analysis, with SPSS 25.0: descriptive analysis, comparison of proportions (chi square) and medians (Mann-Whitney U). The analysis is completed with logistic regression. RESULTS: 610 patients were included in the study. The median age was 49 years (interquartile range: 35-61); 51.8% were women; 14.9% presented UE (95% CI: 12.0-17.8). The sociodemographic variables or the variables related to medical background that showed an independent association with UE were age (OR: 1.066; 95% CI: 1.038-1.095), sex (OR for men: 3.277; 95% CI: 1.304-8.235) and being a smoker or former smoker (OR: 2.565; 95% CI: 1.135-5.800). Regarding the clinical variables of the disease, an association was found for altered consciousness (OR: 62.829; 95% CI: 9.177-430.149), dyspnea (OR: 14.339; 95% CI: 6.046-34.009), expectoration (OR: 4.764; 95% CI: 1.858-12.213)) and asthenia (OR: 3.993; 95% CI: 1.705-9.351). CONCLUSIONS: 14.9% of the patients diagnosed with COVID-19 presented an UE. Older age, male sex and being a smoker or former smoker increased the probability of it. Altered consciousness, dyspnea, expectoration, and asthenia were the clinical data that best predicted UE.