Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 119(35): e2203822119, 2022 08 30.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35994637
ABSTRACT
We propose a method for forecasting global human migration flows. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to make probabilistic projections of the 39,800 bilateral migration flows among the 200 most populous countries. We generate out-of-sample forecasts for all bilateral flows for the 2015 to 2020 period, using models fitted to bilateral migration flows for five 5-y periods from 1990 to 1995 through 2010 to 2015. We find that the model produces well-calibrated out-of-sample forecasts of bilateral flows, as well as total country-level inflows, outflows, and net flows. The mean absolute error decreased by 61% using our method, compared to a leading model of international migration. Out-of-sample analysis indicated that simple methods for forecasting migration flows offered accurate projections of bilateral migration flows in the near term. Our method matched or improved on the out-of-sample performance using these simple deterministic alternatives, while also accurately assessing uncertainty. We integrate the migration flow forecasting model into a fully probabilistic population projection model to generate bilateral migration flow forecasts by age and sex for all flows from 2020 to 2025 through 2040 to 2045.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Emigração e Imigração
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article