Prediction of Electric Power Production and Consumption for the CETATEA Building Using Neural Networks.

ABSTRACT

Economic and social development is hardly influenced by electric power production and consumption. In this context of the energy supply pressure, energy production and consumption must be monitored and controlled in an intelligent way. Due to the availability of large data measurements, prediction algorithms based on neural networks are widely used in accurate power prediction. Firstly, the particularity of our work is represented by the size of the dataset consisting of 4 years of continuous real-time data measurements collected from the CETATEA photovoltaic power plant, a research site for renewable energies located in Cluj-Napoca, Romania. Secondly, the high granularity of the dataset with more than 4.2 million unified production and consumption power values recorded every 30 s guarantees the overall prediction accuracy of the system. Performance metrics used to evaluate the prediction accuracy are the mean bias error, the mean square error, the convergence time of the prediction system, the test performance, and the train mean performance. Test results indicate that the predicted unified electric power production and consumption closely resembles the unified electric power measured values.