Adaptive decision support model for sustainable transport system using fuzzy AHP and dynamical Dijkstra simulations.

ABSTRACT

Concerning decisions for modern public transportation project, the lack of consensus between stakeholders and foreseeability of future transportation requirements might cause poor sustainability of the project. Unfortunately, many decision models give decision opinions without the test of the sustainability. Therefore, a dynamical Dijkstra simulation model is proposed to simulate the real traffic flows. In the model, the cost of the road connections is dynamically updated according to the change of the passenger flows. Then a combined decision support model using fuzzy AHP and dynamical Dijkstra simulation tests is designed. The combined model is capable of analyzing and creating consensus among different stakeholder participants in a transport development problem. The application of FAHP and dynamical Dijkstra ensures that the consensus creation is not only based on the FAHP decision making process but also on the response of the simulated execution of the decisions by dynamical Dijkstra. Thus, the decision makers by FAHP can firstly make their initial preferences in transportation planning, given the pairwise comparison matrices and generate the related weight for the traffic control parameters. And the dynamical Dijkstra simulations test the plan's setting and gives a response to iteratively adjust the FAHP matrices and parameters. The combined model is tested in different scenarios. And the results show that by the application of the proposed model, decision-makers can be more aware of the conflicts of interests among the involved groups, and they can pay more attention to possible violations causing by the change of traffic environment, including the citizen numbers, the construction cost, the roll cost, and etc., to get a more sustainable plan.