Impact of demographic variability on the disease dynamics for honeybee model.

ABSTRACT

For the last few years, annual honeybee colony losses have been center of key interest for many researchers throughout the world. The spread of the parasitic mite and its interaction with specific honeybee viruses carried by Varroa mites has been linked to the decline of honeybee colonies. In this investigation, we consider honeybee-virus and honeybee-infected mite-virus models. We perform sensitivity analysis locally and globally to see the effect of the parameters on the basic reproduction number for both models and to understand the disease dynamics in detail. We use the continuous-time Markov chain model to develop and analyze stochastic epidemic models corresponding to both deterministic models. By using the disease extinction process, we compare both deterministic and stochastic models. We have observed that the numerically approximated probability of disease extinction based on 30 000 sample paths agrees well with the calculated probability using multitype branching process approximation. In particular, it is observed that the disease extinction probability is higher when infected honeybees spread the disease instead of infected mites. We conduct a sensitivity analysis for the stochastic model also to examine how the system parameters affect the probability of disease extinction. We have also derived the equation for the expected time required to reach disease-free equilibrium for stochastic models. Finally, the effect of the parameters on the expected time is represented graphically.