Modeling the effect of time delay in the increment of number of hospital beds to control an infectious disease.

ABSTRACT

One of the key factors to control the spread of any infectious disease is the health care facilities, especially the number of hospital beds. To assess the impact of number of hospital beds and control of an emerged infectious disease, we have formulated a mathematical model by considering population (susceptible, infected, hospitalized) and newly created hospital beds as dynamic variables. In formulating the model, we have assumed that the number of hospital beds increases proportionally to the number of infected individuals. It is shown that on a slight change in parameter values, the model enters to different kinds of bifurcations, e.g., saddle-node, transcritical (backward and forward), and Hopf bifurcation. Also, the explicit conditions for these bifurcations are obtained. We have also shown the occurrence of Bogdanov-Takens (BT) bifurcation using the Normal form. To set up a new hospital bed takes time, and so we have also analyzed our proposed model by incorporating time delay in the increment of newly created hospital beds. It is observed that the incorporation of time delay destabilizes the system, and multiple stability switches arise through Hopf-bifurcation. To validate the results of the analytical analysis, we have carried out some numerical simulations.