Modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model for assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Seoul.
J Theor Biol
; 557: 111329, 2023 01 21.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36309117
ABSTRACT
Susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models were applied to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to study the dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, SEIR models have evolved to address the change of human mobility by some NPIs for predicting the new confirmed cases. However, the models have serious limitations when applied to Seoul. Seoul has two representative quarantine policies, i.e. social distancing and the ban on gatherings. Effects of the two policies need to be reflected in different functional forms in the model because changes in human mobility do not fully reflect the ban on gatherings. Thus we propose a modified SEIR model to assess the effectiveness of social distancing, ban on gatherings and vaccination strategies. The application of the modified SEIR model was illustrated by comparing the model output with real data.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças Transmissíveis
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
País como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article