External validation of a clinical prediction model in multiple sclerosis.
Mult Scler
; 29(2): 261-269, 2023 02.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36448727
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Timely initiation of disease modifying therapy is crucial for managing multiple sclerosis (MS).OBJECTIVE:
We aimed to validate a previously published predictive model of individual treatment response using a non-overlapping cohort from the Middle East.METHODS:
We interrogated the MSBase registry for patients who were not included in the initial model development. These patients had relapsing MS or clinically isolated syndrome, a recorded date of disease onset, disability and dates of disease modifying therapy, with sufficient follow-up pre- and post-baseline. Baseline was the visit at which a new disease modifying therapy was initiated, and which served as the start of the predicted period. The original models were used to translate clinical information into three principal components and to predict probability of relapses, disability worsening or improvement, conversion to secondary progressive MS and treatment discontinuation as well as changes in the area under disability-time curve (ΔAUC). Prediction accuracy was assessed using the criteria published previously.RESULTS:
The models performed well for predicting the risk of disability worsening and improvement (accuracy 81%-96%) and performed moderately well for predicting the risk of relapses (accuracy 73%-91%). The predictions for ΔAUC and risk of treatment discontinuation were suboptimal (accuracy < 44%). Accuracy for predicting the risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS ranged from 50% to 98%.CONCLUSION:
The previously published models are generalisable to patients with a broad range of baseline characteristics in different geographic regions.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Esclerose Múltipla Crônica Progressiva
/
Esclerose Múltipla Recidivante-Remitente
/
Esclerose Múltipla
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article