Modeling cigarette smoking disparities between people with and without serious psychological distress in the US, 1997-2100.
Prev Med
; 166: 107385, 2023 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36495925
ABSTRACT
Cigarette smoking rates are significantly higher among people with serious psychological distress (SPD) compared to the general population. US simulation models that project future smoking disparities by SPD status could inform policy interventions, but have not been developed. We calibrated two compartmental models to the National Health Interview Survey 1997-2018 for populations with and without SPD, calculating smoking prevalence, mortality, and life-years lost by SPD status under different scenarios from 2023 to 2100. Under the Status Quo, smoking prevalence among women with SPD falls from 27.0% in 2023 to 10.7% in 2100 (men 30.1% to 12.2%). For women without SPD, it declines from 9.4% to 3.1% (men 11.5% to 4.0%). The absolute difference in smoking prevalence between those with and without SPD decreases over time, whereas the relative smoking prevalence ratio increases. From 2023 to 2100, 609,000 premature smoking-attributable deaths would occur in the SPD population, with 8 million life-years lost. Under an ideal tobacco control scenario for people with SPD, in which all smokers quit in 2023 and no new smoking initiation occurs thereafter, up to 386,000 of these premature deaths could be averted with 4.9 million life-years gained. Preventing smoking initiation could avert up to 18% of these deaths, while improving smoking cessation could avert up to 82%. Smoking-related disparities for people with SPD will persist unless a shift in tobacco control substantially improves cessation and prevents initiation in this subpopulation. Smoking disparities by SPD may widen in relative but narrow in absolute terms, so both perspectives should be evaluated.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Abandono do Hábito de Fumar
/
Fumar Cigarros
/
Angústia Psicológica
Tipo de estudo:
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article