Are Predictors for Overall Mortality in COPD Patients Robust over Time?

ABSTRACT

(1) Background: Mortality is a major outcome in research on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with various predictors described. However, the dynamic courses of important predictors over time are disregarded. This study evaluates if longitudinal assessment of predictors provides additional information on the mortality risk in COPD when compared with a cross-sectional analysis.; (2) In a longitudinal, prospective, non-interventional cohort study including mild to very severe COPD patients, mortality and its various possible predictors were annually assessed up to seven years.; (3) Results: 297 patients were analysed. Mean (SD) age was 62.5 (7.6) years and 66% males. Mean (SD) FEV1 was 48.8 (21.4)%. A total of 105 events (35.4%) happened with a median (95% CI) survival time of 8.2 (7.2/NA) years. No evidence for a difference between the raw variable and the variable history on the predictive value for all tested variables over each visit was found. There was no evidence for changing effect estimates (coefficients) across the study visits due to the longitudinal assessment; (4) Conclusions: We found no evidence that predictors of mortality in COPD are time dependent. This implies that cross-sectional measured predictors show robust effect estimates over time and multiple assessments seem not to change the predictive value of the measure.