What are the predictors of change in multimorbidity among people with HIV? A longitudinal observational cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity is common among people living with HIV (PLWH), with numerous cross-sectional studies demonstrating associations with older age and past immunosuppression. Little is known about the progression of multimorbidity, particularly in the setting of long-term access to antiretrovirals. This study aims to determine factors predictive of change in multimorbidity in PLWH. METHODS: People living with HIV who attended a regional HIV service were recruited to a consented observational cohort between September 2016 and March 2020. Demographic data, laboratory results and a Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS) were collected at enrolment and first clinical review of every subsequent year. Change in CIRS score was calculated from enrolment to February 2021. Associations with change were determined through univariate and multivariate linear regression. RESULTS: Of 253 people, median age was 58.9 [interquartile range (IQR): 51.9-64.4] years, 91.3% were male, and HIV was diagnosed a median of 22.16 years (IQR: 12.1-30.9) beforehand. Length of time in the study was a median of 134 weeks (IQR: 89.0-179.0), in which a mean CIRS score change of 1.21 (SD 2.60) was observed. Being older (p < 0.001) and having a higher body mass index (p = 0.008) and diabetes (p = 0.014) were associated with an increased likelihood of worsening multimorbidity. PLWH with a higher level of multimorbidity at baseline were less likely to worsen over time (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: As diabetes and weight predict worsening multimorbidity, routine diabetes screening, body mass index measurement, and multimorbidity status awareness are recommended.