Resiliency and vulnerability in early grades writing performance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

To explore potential pandemic-related learning gaps on expressive writing skills, predominantly Hispanic (≈50%) and White (≈30%) primary-grade students responded to grade-specific writing prompts in the fall semesters before and after school closures. Responses were evaluated with an analytic rubric consisting of five traits (focus, organization, development, grammar, mechanics), each scored on a 1-4 scale. Data first were analyzed descriptively and, after propensity score weighting, with ordinal response models (for analytic scores) and generalized linear mixed effects models (for composite scores). Compared to first graders in 2019 (n = 310), those in 2020 (n = 203) scored significantly lower overall as well as on all rubric criteria and were more likely to write unintelligible responses. Second graders in 2020 (n = 194) performed significantly lower than those in 2019 (n = 328) in some traits but not all, and there was a widening gap between students who did/not score proficiently. A three-level longitudinal model analyzing the sample of students moving from first to second grade in fall 2020 (n = 90) revealed significant improvements, but students still performed significantly lower than second graders in the previous year. Implications for student resiliency and instructional planning are discussed.