Sustained Impact of RHDV2 on Wild Rabbit Populations across Australia Eight Years after Its Initial Detection.

ABSTRACT

Following the arrival of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2) in Australia, average rabbit population abundances were reduced by 60% between 2014 and 2018 based on monitoring data acquired from 18 sites across Australia. During this period, as the seropositivity to RHDV2 increased, concurrent decreases were observed in the seroprevalence of both the previously circulating RHDV1 and RCVA, a benign endemic rabbit calicivirus. However, the detection of substantial RHDV1 seropositivity in juvenile rabbits suggested that infections were continuing to occur, ruling out the rapid extinction of this variant. Here we investigate whether the co-circulation of two pathogenic RHDV variants was sustained after 2018 and whether the initially observed impact on rabbit abundance was still maintained. We monitored rabbit abundance and seropositivity to RHDV2, RHDV1 and RCVA at six of the initial eighteen sites until the summer of 2022. We observed sustained suppression of rabbit abundance at five of the six sites, with the average population reduction across all six sites being 64%. Across all sites, average RHDV2 seroprevalence remained high, reaching 60-70% in adult rabbits and 30-40% in juvenile rabbits. In contrast, average RHDV1 seroprevalence declined to <3% in adult rabbits and 5-6% in juvenile rabbits. Although seropositivity continued to be detected in a low number of juvenile rabbits, it is unlikely that RHDV1 strains now play a major role in the regulation of rabbit abundance. In contrast, RCVA seropositivity appears to be reaching an equilibrium with that of RHDV2, with RCVA seroprevalence in the preceding quarter having a strong negative effect on RHDV2 seroprevalence and vice versa, suggesting ongoing co-circulation of these variants. These findings highlight the complex interactions between different calicivirus variants in free-living rabbit populations and demonstrate the changes in interactions over the course of the RHDV2 epizootic as it has moved towards endemicity. While it is encouraging from an Australian perspective to see sustained suppression of rabbit populations in the eight years following the arrival of RHDV2, it is likely that rabbit populations will eventually recover, as has been observed with previous rabbit pathogens.