Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Community incidence patterns drive the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and alter intervention impacts in a high-risk institutional setting.
Moore, Sean M; España, Guido; Perkins, T Alex; Guido, Robert M; Jucaban, Joaquin B; Hall, Tara L; Huhtanen, Mark E; Peel, Sheila A; Modjarrad, Kayvon; Hakre, Shilpa; Scott, Paul T.
Afiliação
  • Moore SM; Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA. Electronic address: smoore15@nd.edu.
  • España G; Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
  • Perkins TA; Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
  • Guido RM; Moncrief Army Health Clinic, Fort Jackson, SC 29207, USA.
  • Jucaban JB; Moncrief Army Health Clinic, Fort Jackson, SC 29207, USA.
  • Hall TL; Moncrief Army Health Clinic, Fort Jackson, SC 29207, USA.
  • Huhtanen ME; United States Army Training Center, Fort Jackson, SC 29207, USA.
  • Peel SA; Diagnostics and Countermeasures Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.
  • Modjarrad K; Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.
  • Hakre S; Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA.
  • Scott PT; Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.
Epidemics ; 43: 100691, 2023 06.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37267710
ABSTRACT
Optimization of control measures for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in high-risk institutional settings (e.g., prisons, nursing homes, or military bases) depends on how transmission dynamics in the broader community influence outbreak risk locally. We calibrated an individual-based transmission model of a military training camp to the number of RT-PCR positive trainees throughout 2020 and 2021. The predicted number of infected new arrivals closely followed adjusted national incidence and increased early outbreak risk after accounting for vaccination coverage, masking compliance, and virus variants. Outbreak size was strongly correlated with the predicted number of off-base infections among staff during training camp. In addition, off-base infections reduced the impact of arrival screening and masking, while the number of infectious trainees upon arrival reduced the impact of vaccination and staff testing. Our results highlight the importance of outside incidence patterns for modulating risk and the optimal mixture of control measures in institutional settings.
Assuntos
Palavras-chave

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Humans Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Humans Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article