An epidemic model with time delays determined by the infectivity and disease durations.
Math Biosci Eng
; 20(7): 12864-12888, 2023 06 02.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37501470
ABSTRACT
We propose an epidemiological model with distributed recovery and death rates. It represents an integrodifferential system of equations for susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered and dead compartments. This model can be reduced to the conventional ODE model under the assumption that recovery and death rates are uniformly distributed in time during disease duration. Another limiting case, where recovery and death rates are given by the delta-function, leads to a new point-wise delay model with two time delays corresponding to the infectivity period and disease duration. Existence and positiveness of solutions for the distributed delay model and point-wise delay model are proved. The basic reproduction number and the final size of the epidemic are determined. Both, the ODE model and the delay models are used to describe COVID-19 epidemic progression. The delay model gives a better approximation of the Omicron data than the conventional ODE model from the point of view of parameter estimation.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças Transmissíveis
/
Epidemias
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article