Dynamic modelling of the impact of community-based acute mental health services for children and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact of the recently announced 'Safeguards' initiative on mental health-related emergency department presentation rates for children and adolescents (0-17 years). This state-funded initiative aims to establish 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams across New South Wales. METHODS: We estimated the effects of the 'Safeguards' initiative using a state-level dynamic model of child and adolescent acute mental health care. Potential reductions in total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations (i.e. presentations within 3 months of an initial presentation) were assessed via a series of simulation experiments in which we systematically varied the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams and the mean duration of care per patient. RESULTS: Assuming a mean treatment duration of 6 weeks per patient, 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams are projected to reduce total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations over the period 2022-2031 by 15.0% (95% interval, 12.0-18.2%) and 31.7% (26.2-37.8%), respectively. Increasing the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams above 25 has minimal additional impact on projected reductions in numbers of emergency department presentations and re-presentations, provided the mean duration of care is no more than 8 weeks. However, where the mean duration of care is greater than 4 weeks, a decrease in the number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams below 25 reduces the potential effectiveness of the 'Safeguards' initiative significantly. CONCLUSION: Our simulation results indicate that full and timely implementation will be critical if the potentially substantial impact of the 'Safeguards' initiative on demand for hospital-based emergency mental health care is to be realised.