Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in advanced endometrial carcinoma after surgery: a retrospective analysis of the SEER Database.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) after surgery in patients with advanced endometrial carcinoma (EC). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database contains cancer incidence and survival data from population-based cancer registries in the USA. A total of 5445 patients from the SEER Database diagnosed with advanced EC between 2004 and 2015 were included and randomised 73 into a training cohort (n=3812) and a validation cohort (n=1633). OUTCOME MEASURE: CSS. RESULTS: The nomograms for CSS included 10 variables (positive regional nodes, age, tumour size, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, grade, ethnicity, income, radiation, chemotherapy and historical stage) based on the forward stepwise regression results. They revealed discrimination and calibration using the concordance index (C-index) and area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, with a C-index value of 0.7324 (95% CI=0.7181 to 0.7468) and 0.7511 (95% CI=0.7301 to 0.7722) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Using calibration plots, a high degree of conformance was shown between the predicted and observed results. Additionally, a comparison of the nomogram and FIGO staging based on changes in the C-index, net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement demonstrated that the nomogram had better accuracy and efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully constructed an accurate and effective nomogram to predict CSS in patients with advanced EC, which may help clinicians determine optimal individualised treatment strategies for patients with advanced EC. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated thoroughly, but only internally. Therefore, further validation using different data sources is warranted in future related studies.