Local temperature responses to actual land cover changes present significant latitudinal variability and asymmetry.

ABSTRACT

Land cover changes (LCCs) affect surface temperatures at local scale through biophysical processes. However, previous observation-based studies mainly focused on the potential effects of virtual afforestation/deforestation using the space-for-time assumption, while the actual effects of all types of realistic LCCs are underexplored. Here, we adopted the space-and-time scheme and utilized extensive high-resolution (1-km) satellite observations to perform the first such assessment. We showed that, from 2006 to 2015, the average temperature in the areas with LCCs increased by 0.08 K globally, but varied significantly across latitudes, ranging from -0.05 to 0.18 K. Cropland expansions dominated summertime cooling effects in the northern mid-latitudes, whereas forest-related LCCs caused warming effects elsewhere. These effects accounted for up to 44.6% of overall concurrent warming, suggesting that LCC influences cannot be ignored. In addition, we revealed obvious asymmetries in the actual effects, i.e., LCCs with warming effects occurred more frequently, with stronger intensities, than LCCs with cooling effects. Even for the mutual changes between two covers in the same region, warming LCCs generally had larger magnitudes than their cooling counterparts due to asymmetric changes in transition fractions and driving variables. These novel findings, derived from the assessment of actual LCCs, provide more realistic implications for land management and climate adaptation policies.