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Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.
Howerton, Emily; Contamin, Lucie; Mullany, Luke C; Qin, Michelle; Reich, Nicholas G; Bents, Samantha; Borchering, Rebecca K; Jung, Sung-Mok; Loo, Sara L; Smith, Claire P; Levander, John; Kerr, Jessica; Espino, J; van Panhuis, Willem G; Hochheiser, Harry; Galanti, Marta; Yamana, Teresa; Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey; Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin; Kinsey, Matt; Tallaksen, Kate; Wilson, Shelby; Shin, Lauren; Lemaitre, Joseph C; Kaminsky, Joshua; Hulse, Juan Dent; Lee, Elizabeth C; McKee, Clifton D; Hill, Alison; Karlen, Dean; Chinazzi, Matteo; Davis, Jessica T; Mu, Kunpeng; Xiong, Xinyue; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Vespignani, Alessandro; Rosenstrom, Erik T; Ivy, Julie S; Mayorga, Maria E; Swann, Julie L; España, Guido; Cavany, Sean; Moore, Sean; Perkins, Alex; Hladish, Thomas; Pillai, Alexander; Ben Toh, Kok; Longini, Ira; Chen, Shi.
Afiliação
  • Howerton E; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA. ehowerton@psu.edu.
  • Contamin L; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Mullany LC; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Qin M; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Reich NG; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
  • Bents S; National Institutes of Health Fogarty International Center, Bethesda, MD, USA.
  • Borchering RK; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
  • Jung SM; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Loo SL; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
  • Smith CP; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Levander J; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Kerr J; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Espino J; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • van Panhuis WG; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Hochheiser H; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Rockville, MD, USA.
  • Galanti M; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Yamana T; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Pei S; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Shaman J; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Rainwater-Lovett K; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Kinsey M; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Tallaksen K; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Wilson S; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Shin L; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Lemaitre JC; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Kaminsky J; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
  • Hulse JD; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Lee EC; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • McKee CD; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Hill A; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Karlen D; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Chinazzi M; University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada.
  • Davis JT; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Mu K; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Xiong X; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Pastore Y Piontti A; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Vespignani A; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Rosenstrom ET; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Ivy JS; North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
  • Mayorga ME; North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
  • Swann JL; North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
  • España G; North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
  • Cavany S; University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Moore S; University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Perkins A; University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Hladish T; University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Pillai A; University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • Ben Toh K; University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • Longini I; Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Chen S; University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 7260, 2023 Nov 20.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37985664
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.
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Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: COVID-19 Limite: Humans Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article
Texto completo
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: COVID-19 Limite: Humans Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article