Evaluating effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of an atypical cavefish Onychostoma macrolepis.

ABSTRACT

Comprehending endangered species' spatial distribution in response to global climate change (GCC) is of great importance for formulating adaptive management, conservation, and restoration plans. However, it is regrettable that previous studies mainly focused on geoclimatic species, while neglected climate-sensitive subterranean taxa to a large extent, which clearly hampered the discovery of universal principles. In view of this, taking the endemic troglophile riverine fish Onychostoma macrolepis (Bleeker, 1871) as an example, we constructed a MaxEnt (maximum-entropy) model to predict how the spatial distribution of this endangered fish would respond to future climate changes (three Global Climate Models × two Shared Socio-economic Pathways × three future time nodes) based on painstakingly collected species occurrence data and a set of bioclimatic variables, including WorldClim and ENVIREM. Model results showed that variables related to temperature rather than precipitation were more important in determining the geographic distribution of this rare and endemic fish. In addition, the suitable areas and their distribution centroids of O. macrolepis would shrink (average 20,901.75 km2) and move toward the northeast or northwest within the study area (i.e. China). Linking our results with this species' limited dispersion potential and unique habitat requirements (i.e. karst landform is essential), we thus recommended in situ conservation to protect this relict.