Spatial and temporal analysis of influential factors on motor vehicle carbon monoxide emissions in China considering emissions trading scheme.

ABSTRACT

The number of cars is increasing every year and the environmental aspects of transport are becoming a hot topic. The spatial and temporal patterns of motor vehicle carbon monoxide (CO) emissions are still unclear due to the unbalanced economic development and heterogeneous geographic conditions of China. With the objective of realizing a reduction in motor vehicle CO emissions, his study explores the transport carbon emission reduction pathways of China from motor vehicle CO emission. Firstly, the entropy method is adopted to comprehensively evaluate the CO emissions from motor vehicles in each province; secondly, the development of a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model facilitates the examination of the spatiotemporal dynamics pertaining to the influencing factors of motor vehicle CO emissions within each province.; finally, the characteristics of motor vehicle CO emissions in ETS pilot areas and non-ETS pilot areas are compared. The results show that (1) After the completion of the six ETS pilot areas in 2011, the CO emission from motor vehicles is reduced by 18% compared with 2010.(2)The entropy method shows that the largest CO emissions from motor vehicles are from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other provinces with high economic levels.(3) The results of the GTWR model show that the positive effects of economic level, population size, road mileage intensity and motor vehicle intensity on motor vehicle CO emissions are decreasing year by year. The negative effect of metro line intensity on CO emission decreases year by year. This study can help decision makers to identify the high emission areas, understand the influencing factors, and formulate emission reduction measures to achieve the purpose of carbon emission reduction in transport.