Simulating land use change for sustainable land management in China's coal resource-based cities under different scenarios.

ABSTRACT

Land use competition among economic development, food security and ecological protection posed challenges for the sustainable development in resource-based cities, especially those represented by coal resource-based cities in China. Predicting future land use change under the coupled framework of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCPs) was a crucial step in devising sustainable development strategies. In this study, the patch-generated land use simulation (PLUS) model coupled with SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) was used to predict land use changes from year 2020 to 2060, identify key management regions for balancing the goals of ecological protection and food security, and propose corresponding measures. The results showed that, (1) the selected driving factors and model parameters effectively simulated land use changes with an Overall accuracy of 0.95, a Kappa coefficient of 0.92, a Figure of Merit of 0.16, an Exchange error ≤5.69 %, a Shift error ≤1.04 %, and a Quantity error ≤0.67 %. (2) All the scenarios, it was observed that the grassland continued to decrease by 0.86 % to 7.34 %, and the forest and built-up land continued to increase, of which forest increased by 2.34 % to 4.03 %, and built-up land increased by 21.02 % to 61.08 %. Cropland only increased in SSP585 scenario, by 4.76 %, but declining by 2.93 % in SSP126 and SSP245 scenario. (3) In future scenarios, the expansion of built-up land has escalated the risk of cropland and grassland loss. Based on the distribution of key land use conversions, four categories of prioritized land management regions and corresponding measures have been proposed. This provided a potential pathway to mitigate risks associated with the protection of cropland and ecological land. Therefore, this study was instrumental in understanding the mechanisms of land use changes in coal resource-based cities, and provided a reference for land use planning.