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PM2.5-Attributable Mortality Burden Variability in the Continental U.S.
Chan, Elizabeth A W; Fann, Neal; Kelly, James T.
Afiliação
  • Chan EAW; Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
  • Fann N; Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
  • Kelly JT; Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
Atmos Environ (1994) ; 315: 1-9, 2023 Dec.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38299035
ABSTRACT
Epidemiologic studies have consistently observed associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and premature mortality. These studies use air quality concentration information from a combination of sources to estimate pollutant exposures and then assess how mortality varies as a result of differing exposures. Health impact assessments then typically use a single log-linear hazard ratio (HR) per health outcome to estimate counts of avoided human health effects resulting from air quality improvements. This paper estimates the total PM2.5-attributable premature mortality burden using a variety of methods for estimating exposures and quantifying PM2.5-attributable deaths in 2011 and 2028. We use 1) several exposure models that apply a wide range of methods, and 2) a variety of HRs from the epidemiologic literature that relate long-term PM2.5 exposures to mortality among the U.S. population. We then further evaluate the variability of aggregated national premature mortality estimates to stratification by race and/or ethnicity or exposure level (e.g., below the current annual PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards). We find that unstratified annual adult mortality burden incidence estimates vary more (e.g., ~3-fold) by HR than by exposure model (e.g., <10%). In addition, future mortality burden estimates stratified by race/ethnicity are larger than the unstratified estimates of the entire population, and studies that stratify PM2.5-attributable mortality HRs by an exposure concentration threshold led to substantially higher estimates. These results are intended to provide transparency regarding the sensitivity of mortality estimates to upstream input choices.
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Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article