Susceptible Young Adults and Development of COPD Later in Life.

ABSTRACT

RATIONALE Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has its origin in early life, and the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) proposes a pre-disease state "pre-COPD". OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that susceptible young adults identified with chronic bronchitis and subtle lung function impairment will develop COPD later in life. METHODS: We followed random non-obstructive individuals aged 20-50years from two population-based cohorts from different smoking eras, the Copenhagen General Population Study from 2003(N=5497) and Copenhagen City Heart Study from 1976-78(N=2609), for 10 and 25years for development of COPD(forced expiratory volume in one second[FEV1]/forced vital capacity[FVC]<0.70) and COPD GOLD 2-4 (additionally FEV1<80% predicted). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: After 10 years follow-up, 28% developed COPD and 13% COPD GOLD 2-4 in individuals susceptible to COPD compared to 8% and 1% in those without any susceptibility to COPD. Correspondingly, after 25years, 22% versus 13% developed COPD and 20% versus 8% developed COPD GOLD 2-4. More than half of incident COPD cases developed from a susceptible state. Compared to those without susceptibility to COPD, multivariable adjusted odds ratios in those susceptible to COPD were 3.42(95% confidence interval2.78-4.21) for COPD and 10.1(6.77-15.2) for COPD GOLD 2-4 after 10years, and 1.54(1.23-1.93) and 2.12(1.64-2.73) after 25years. The ability of a COPD risk score consisting of the susceptibility state to COPD with smoking and asthma as risk factors to predict COPD later in life was high. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests the existence of a pre-disease state of COPD, which can be used for early identification of susceptible individuals at risk for COPD later in life.