Clinical surveillance systems obscure the true cholera infection burden in an endemic region.
Nat Med
; 30(3): 888-895, 2024 Mar.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38378884
ABSTRACT
Our understanding of cholera transmission and burden largely relies on clinic-based surveillance, which can obscure trends, bias burden estimates and limit the impact of targeted cholera-prevention measures. Serological surveillance provides a complementary approach to monitoring infections, although the link between serologically derived infections and medically attended disease incidence-shaped by immunological, behavioral and clinical factors-remains poorly understood. We unravel this cascade in a cholera-endemic Bangladeshi community by integrating clinic-based surveillance, healthcare-seeking and longitudinal serological data through statistical modeling. Combining the serological trajectories with a reconstructed incidence timeline of symptomatic cholera, we estimated an annual Vibrio cholerae O1 infection incidence rate of 535 per 1,000 population (95% credible interval 514-556), with incidence increasing by age group. Clinic-based surveillance alone underestimated the number of infections and reported cases were not consistently correlated with infection timing. Of the infections, 4 in 3,280 resulted in symptoms, only 1 of which was reported through the surveillance system. These results impart insights into cholera transmission dynamics and burden in the epicenter of the seventh cholera pandemic, where >50% of our study population had an annual V. cholerae O1 infection, and emphasize the potential for a biased view of disease burden and infection risk when depending solely on clinical surveillance data.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Vibrio cholerae
/
Cólera
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article