What is China's efficient power generation portfolio under carbon neutrality target? An empirical analysis considering flexibility and system cost.

ABSTRACT

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is the most promising form of primary generation under a carbon neutrality target due to its environmental benefits, incentive policy, and technological progress. However, the increasing proportion of VRE generation, such as solar and wind power, has sharply increased integration cost and reduced power grid stability. This study uses portfolio theory to investigate China's optimal power generation portfolio by 2050 considering flexibility constraint and system cost, including technical and integration costs. The results demonstrate that non-fossil-fuel power generation technologies have cost and emission reduction advantages over fossil-fuel-based technologies. VRE generation technologies must be developed in synergy with other forms of power generation when considering flexibility requirement and integration cost. A complete phase-out of fossil-fuel power generation technologies in China appears unlikely in the study period. Gas-fired and coal-fired power generation are the pillar forms of power generation to meet future flexibility needs.