Summer heatwaves promote harmful algal blooms in the Fuchunjiang Reservoir, an important drinking water source.

ABSTRACT

Extensive outbreaks of harmful algal blooms (HABs) occurred in the Fuchunjiang Reservoir in 2022, a crucial urban drinking water source, coinciding with extreme summer heatwaves. We hypothesize that these heatwaves contributed to HABs formation and expansion. Leveraging Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 data, we employed clustering and machine learning methods to quantify the HABs distribution and area. Concurrent meteorological and water quality data aided in uncovering the effects of heatwave on HABs. When applying different methods to extract HABs from remote sensing images, random forest (RF) analyses indicated accuracies of 99.3% and 99.8% for Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 data, respectively, while classification and regression tree (CART) analyses indicated 99.1% and 99.7% accuracies, respectively. Support vector machine (SVM) exhibited lower accuracies (83.5% and 97.4%). Thus RF, given its smaller differences between satellites and high accuracy, was selected for further analysis. Both satellites detected extensive HABs in 2022, with Sentinel-2 recording a peak area of 24.13 km2 (44.6% of cloud-free water area) on August 11, 2022. Increasing trends with amplified durations were observed for summer heatwaves in Jiande and Tonglu around the Fuchunjiang Reservoir. Notably, these areas experienced extreme heatwaves for 63 and 58 days in 2022, respectively, more than double the 1980-2022 average. From June 1 to October 8, 2022, water temperature peaks significantly coincided with expansive HABs and elevated chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration from 4.8 µg/L to 119.2 µg/L during the summer heatwaves. Our findings indicated that the reservoir became more HAB-prone during heatwave events, escalating the drinking water safety risk. These results emphasize the challenges faced by reservoir managers in dealing with climate-induced extreme heatwaves and underscore the urgency for heightened attention from water source management departments.