Risk factors and a nomogram for prediction of post-endoscopic submucosal dissection electrocoagulation syndrome for superficial colorectal lesions.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Post-endoscopic submucosal dissection electrocoagulation syndrome (PEECS) is an uncommon complication after colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). This study aimed to explore the risk factors of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions based on the latest and consistent diagnostic criteria and to establish a predictive nomogram model. METHODS: This retrospective analysis included patients with superficial colorectal lesions who underwent endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) between June 2008 and December 2021 in our center. The independent risk factors of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression analysis, as well as univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, and derived predictive nomogram model was constructed. RESULTS: Among the 555 patients with superficial colorectal lesions enrolled, PEECS occurred in 45 (8.1%) patients. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that female sex (OR 3.94, P < 0.001), age > 50 years (OR 4.28, P = 0.02), injury to muscle layer (OR 10.38, P < 0.001), non-lifting sign (OR 2.20, P = 0.04) and inadequate bowel preparation (OR 5.61, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions. A predictive nomogram model was constructed based on the above five predictors. For this model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.855, the calibration curve exhibited good consistency between the prediction and the actual observation, and the C-index was confirmed as 0.843 by bootstrap method. CONCLUSION: Female sex, age > 50 years, injury to muscle layer, non-lifting sign and inadequate bowel preparation were independent risk factors of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions. The proposed nomogram could accurately predict the risk of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions.