Breaking through the limitation of carbon price forecasting: A novel hybrid model based on secondary decomposition and nonlinear integration.

ABSTRACT

Carbon trading is one of the pivotal means of carbon emission reduction. Accurate prediction of carbon prices can stabilize the carbon market, mitigate investment risks, and promote green development. In this study, firstly, the IVMD and ICEEMDAN are used to decompose carbon price quadratically; secondly, the Dispersion entropy is used to identify the sequence frequency, and then the SOA-LSSVM model and TCN model are used to predict the high-frequency and low-frequency sequences, respectively; finally, the prediction results are integrated by SOA-GRU. As a result, the hybrid IVMD-ICEEMDAN-SOALSSVM/TCN-SOAGRU model was constructed. This framework consistently performs best under two carbon markets, the CEEX Guangzhou and the EU ETS, compared with 21 comparative models, with MAPEs of 0.42% and 0.83%, respectively. The main contributions are as follows (1) A novel IVMD-ICEEMDAN secondary decomposition method is proposed, which improves the problem of poorly determining the value of the decomposition modal number K in the traditional VMD method and improves the efficiency of the carbon price sequence decomposition. (2) A hybrid forecasting model of LSSVM and TCN is proposed, effectively capturing the features of different sequences. (3) Optimization for LSSVM and GRU using SOA improves the stability and adaptability of the model. The article provides governments, enterprises, and investors with novel and effective carbon price forecasting tool.