Predicting postacute phase anaemia after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: nomogram development and validation.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Anaemia is a severe and common complication in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). Early intervention for at-risk patients before anaemia occurs is indicated as potentially beneficial, but no validated method synthesises patients' complicated clinical features into an instrument. The purpose of the current study was to develop and externally validate a nomogram that predicted postacute phase anaemia after aSAH. METHODS: We developed a novel nomogram for aSAH patients to predict postacute phase anaemia (3 days after occurrence of aSAH, prior to discharge) on the basis of demographic information, imaging, type of treatment, aneurysm features, blood tests and clinical characteristics. We designed the model from a development cohort and tested the nomogram in external and prospective validation cohorts. We included 456 aSAH patients from The First Affiliated Hospital for the development, 220 from Sanmen People's Hospital for external validation and a prospective validation cohort that included 13 patients from Hangzhou Red Cross Hospital. We assessed the performance of the nomogram via concordance statistics and evaluated the calibration of predicted anaemia outcome with observed anaemia occurrence. RESULTS: Variables included in the nomogram were age, treatment method (open surgery or endovascular therapy), baseline haemoglobin level, fasting blood glucose level, systemic inflammatory response syndrome score on admission, Glasgow Coma Scale score, aneurysm size, prothrombin time and heart rate. In the validation cohort, the model for prediction of postacute phase anaemia had a c-statistic of 0.910, with satisfactory calibration (judged by eye) for the predicted and reported anaemia outcome. Among forward-looking forecasts, our predictive model achieved an 84% success rate, which showed that it has some clinical practicability. CONCLUSIONS: The developed and validated nomogram can be used to calculate individualised anaemia risk and has the potential to serve as a practical tool for clinicians in devising improved treatment strategies for aSAH.