Inflammatory biomarkers and long-term outcome in young patients three months after a first myocardial infarction.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Studies on predictive value of circulating inflammatory biomarkers after myocardial infarction (MI) have often been limited by blood sampling only in an acute setting and short follow-up time. We aimed to compare the long-term predictive value of nine inflammatory biomarkers, known to be involved in atherosclerosis, in young patients investigated three months after a first-time MI. METHODS: Nine biomarkers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-18, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-1, MMP-3, MMP-9, serum amyloid A and tumor necrosis factor-alfa) were sampled in 382 young (<60 years) patients and in age and sex-matched controls, three months after a first-time MI between 1996 and 2000. Swedish national patient registers were used to determine cardiovascular (CV) outcomes during 20 years of follow-up. RESULTS: In cases, random forest models identified IL-6 as the most important predictor of the primary composite endpoint of death, heart failure (HF) or MI hospitalization, and the separate endpoints death and HF hospitalization. IL-18 was the most important predictor of MI hospitalization. In a Cox regression, the highest tertile of IL-6 was associated with the composite endpoint (HR (95% CI) 1.91 (1.31-2.79)), death (2.38 (1.42-3.98)) and HF hospitalization (2.70 (1.32-5.50)), when adjusting for age, sex and CV risk factors. The highest tertile of IL-18 was associated with MI hospitalization (2.31 (1.08-4.91)) when severity of coronary atherosclerosis was added to the same type of model. CONCLUSIONS: When nine inflammatory markers involved in atherosclerosis were analyzed three months after the acute event in young MI patients, IL-6 and IL-18 were the most important biomarkers to predict long-term CV outcomes during 20 years of follow-up.