Developing a Machine Learning Model to Predict 180-day Readmission for Elderly Patients with Angina.

ABSTRACT

Background: Readmission of elderly angina patients has become a serious problem, with a dearth of available prediction tools for readmission assessment. The objective of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML) model that can predict 180-day all-cause readmission for elderly angina patients. Methods: The clinical data for elderly angina patients was retrospectively collected. Five ML algorithms were used to develop prediction models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC), and the Brier score were applied to assess predictive performance. Analysis by Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was performed to evaluate the contribution of each variable. Results: A total of 1502 elderly angina patients (45.74% female) were enrolled in the study. The extreme gradient boosting (XGB) model showed good predictive performance for 180-day readmission (AUROC = 0.89; AUPRC = 0.91; Brier score = 0.21). SHAP analysis revealed that the number of medications, hematocrit, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were important variables associated with 180-day readmission. Conclusions: An ML model can accurately identify elderly angina patients with a high risk of 180-day readmission. The model used to identify individual risk factors can also serve to remind clinicians of appropriate interventions that may help to prevent the readmission of patients.