Novel machine-learning prediction tools for overall survival of patients with chondrosarcoma: Based on recursive partitioning analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Chondrosarcoma (CHS), a bone malignancy, poses a significant challenge due to its heterogeneous nature and resistance to conventional treatments. There is a clear need for advanced prognostic instruments that can integrate multiple prognostic factors to deliver personalized survival predictions for individual patients. This study aimed to develop a novel prediction tool based on recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) to improve the estimation of overall survival for patients with CHS. METHODS: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were analyzed, including demographic, clinical, and treatment details of patients diagnosed between 2000 and 2018. Using C5.0 algorithm, decision trees were created to predict survival probabilities at 12, 24, 60, and 120 months. The performance of the models was assessed through confusion scatter plot, accuracy rate, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, and area under ROC curve (AUC). RESULTS: The study identified tumor histology, surgery, age, visceral (brain/liver/lung) metastasis, chemotherapy, tumor grade, and sex as critical predictors. Decision trees revealed distinct patterns for survival prediction at each time point. The models showed high accuracy (82.40%-89.09% in training group, and 82.16%-88.74% in test group) and discriminatory power (AUC 0.806-0.894 in training group, and 0.808-0.882 in test group) in both training and testing datasets. An interactive web-based shiny APP (URL https//yangxg1209.shinyapps.io/chondrosarcoma_survival_prediction/) was developed, simplifying the survival prediction process for clinicians. CONCLUSIONS: This study successfully employed RPA to develop a user-friendly tool for personalized survival predictions in CHS. The decision tree models demonstrated robust predictive capabilities, with the interactive application facilitating clinical decision-making. Future prospective studies are recommended to validate these findings and further refine the predictive model.