Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Zingiber striolatum Diels (Zingiberaceae), a medicine food homology plant in China.

ABSTRACT

Zingiber striolatum Diels is a unique medicine food homology plant native to China. In recent years, due to severe habitat destruction, studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of wild resources is of great significance for the ecological conservation and artificial cultivation of Z. striolatum. This study collected 141 valid species distribution records, and 37 environmental variables, and projected two future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) for two periods (2050s and 2090s). By employing Pearson analysis, Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), and Geographic Information System (ArcGIS), we predicted the potential suitable habitats for Z. striolatum under present and future climates, as well as identified the dominant environmental variables influencing its distribution. The results indicated that the MaxEnt model performed well (AUC > 0.9) with high accuracy and reliability. The dominant environmental factors included Precipitation of driest quarter (39.0 ~ 473.8 mm), Precipitation of wettest quarter (593.2 ~ 1269.4 mm), Temperature annual range (9.8 ~ 28.6℃), and Mean diurnal range (6.5 ~ 9.6℃). The highly suitable areas for Z. striolatum were mainly distributed in western and southern Yunnan, northern and western Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and central Hainan. Under future climate change, the centroid of the total suitable area for Z. striolatum is projected to shift towards the southwest (Yungui Plateau) at higher elevations.