The Relationship between 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Calculated Using the Pooled Cohort Equation and the Severity of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We investigated the association between the severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and the estimated 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) calculated by Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and Framingham risk score (FRS). METHODS: A total of 15,913 participants (mean age, 46.3 years) in a health screening program were selected for analysis. The presence and severity of fatty liver was assessed by abdominal ultrasonogram. Subjects who drank alcohol more than three times a week were excluded from the study. RESULTS: Among the participants, 57.6% had no NAFLD, 35.4% had grade I, 6.5% had grade II, and 0.5% had grade III NAFLD. Mean estimated 10-year CVD risk was 2.59%, 3.93%, 4.68%, and 5.23% calculated using the PCE (P for trend <0.01) and 4.55%, 6.39%, 7.33%, and 7.13% calculated using FRS, according to NAFLD severity from none to severe (P for trend <0.01). The odds ratio for ≥7.5% estimated CVD risk calculated using the PCE showed a higher correlation with increasing severity of NAFLD even after adjustment for conventional CVD risk factors (1.52, 2.56, 3.35 vs. the no NAFLD group as a reference, P<0.01) compared with calculated risk using FRS (1.65, 1.62, 1.72 vs. no NAFLD group as a reference, P<0.01). CONCLUSION: In our study of apparently healthy Korean adults, increasing severity of NAFLD showed a higher correlation with estimated 10-year CVD risk when calculated using the PCE than when calculated using FRS.