Delphi method applied for assessment of respiratory infectious disease risk in winter of 2013 and spring of 2014 in Songjiang District of Shanghai / 上海预防医学

ABSTRACT

By means of risk assessment, to explore the likelihood, harmfulness, pop-ulation susceptibility and comprehensive risk in relation to infectious respiratory diseases in late winter of 2013 and early spring of 2014 in Songjiang District of Shanghai , providing the basis for prevention and con-trol of infectious diseases . [ Methods] Delphi method was used and experts were invited to score for designed questions .Infectious respiratory diseases comprehensive risks were evaluated by applying the for-mula P(Risk) =[L(likelihood)+I(impact)+V(vulnerability)]/3 according to the risk evaluation plan. [ Results] After two rounds of risk evaluation by experts , the coefficient of expert activity was 1 .00 , the coefficient of authority was 0.70, 0.73 and 0.71 respectively in likelihood, harmfulness and susceptibility , and the coefficient of coordination was 0.68, 0.65 and 0.67 respectively.The viewpoints of experts tended to be consistent .Comprehensive analysis showed that the risk of influenza was high , and tuberculosis , HFMD, influenza A H7N9 avian influenza, smallpox and influenza A H1N1 avian influenza were relatively high too, while the risk of measles, scarlet fever, mumps were moderate. [Conclusion] During late winter of 2013 and early spring of 2014 in Songjiang District , close attention should be paid to the risk of in-fluenza, tuberculosis, HFMD, influenza A H7N9 avian influenza, smallpox and influenza A H1N1 avian in-fluenza .And it is important that emergency plans should be formulated or improved , drills carried out peri-odically, and experience and lessons summarized .