Trajectories of clinical characteristics, complications and treatment choices in data-driven subgroups of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study aimed to explore the added value of subgroups that categorise individuals with type 2 diabetes by k-means clustering for two primary care registries (the Netherlands and Scotland), inspired by Ahlqvist's novel diabetes subgroups and previously analysed by Slieker et al. METHODS: We used two Dutch and Scottish diabetes cohorts (N=3054 and 6145; median follow-up=11.2 and 12.3 years, respectively) and defined five subgroups by k-means clustering with age at baseline, BMI, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. We investigated differences between subgroups by trajectories of risk factor values (random intercept models), time to diabetes-related complications (logrank tests and Cox models) and medication patterns (multinomial logistic models). We also compared directly using the clustering indicators as predictors of progression vs the k-means discrete subgroups. Cluster consistency over follow-up was assessed. RESULTS: Subgroups' risk factors were significantly different, and these differences remained generally consistent over follow-up. Among all subgroups, individuals with severe insulin resistance faced a significantly higher risk of myocardial infarction both before (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.40, 1.94) and after adjusting for age effect (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.46, 2.02) compared with mild diabetes with high HDL-cholesterol. Individuals with severe insulin-deficient diabetes were most intensively treated, with more than 25% prescribed insulin at 10 years of diagnosis. For severe insulin-deficient diabetes relative to mild diabetes, the relative risks for using insulin relative to no common treatment would be expected to increase by a factor of 3.07 (95% CI 2.73, 3.44), holding other factors constant. Clustering indicators were better predictors of progression variation relative to subgroups, but prediction accuracy may improve after combining both. Clusters were consistent over 8 years with an accuracy ranging from 59% to 72%. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Data-driven subgroup allocations were generally consistent over follow-up and captured significant differences in risk factor trajectories, medication patterns and complication risks. Subgroups serve better as a complement rather than as a basis for compressing clustering indicators.

An omics-based machine learning approach to predict diabetes progression: a RHAPSODY study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: People with type 2 diabetes are heterogeneous in their disease trajectory, with some progressing more quickly to insulin initiation than others. Although classical biomarkers such as age, HbA1c and diabetes duration are associated with glycaemic progression, it is unclear how well such variables predict insulin initiation or requirement and whether newly identified markers have added predictive value. METHODS: In two prospective cohort studies as part of IMI-RHAPSODY, we investigated whether clinical variables and three types of molecular markers (metabolites, lipids, proteins) can predict time to insulin requirement using different machine learning approaches (lasso, ridge, GRridge, random forest). Clinical variables included age, sex, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. Models were run with unpenalised clinical variables (i.e. always included in the model without weights) or penalised clinical variables, or without clinical variables. Model development was performed in one cohort and the model was applied in a second cohort. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel's C statistic. RESULTS: Of the 585 individuals from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort, 69 required insulin during follow-up (1.0-11.4 years); of the 571 individuals in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) cohort, 175 required insulin during follow-up (0.3-11.8 years). Overall, the clinical variables and proteins were selected in the different models most often, followed by the metabolites. The most frequently selected clinical variables were HbA1c (18 of the 36 models, 50%), age (15 models, 41.2%) and C-peptide (15 models, 41.2%). Base models (age, sex, BMI, HbA1c) including only clinical variables performed moderately in both the DCS discovery cohort (C statistic 0.71 [95% CI 0.64, 0.79]) and the GoDARTS replication cohort (C 0.71 [95% CI 0.69, 0.75]). A more extensive model including HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide performed better in both cohorts (DCS, C 0.74 [95% CI 0.67, 0.81]; GoDARTS, C 0.73 [95% CI 0.69, 0.77]). Two proteins, lactadherin and proto-oncogene tyrosine-protein kinase receptor, were most consistently selected and slightly improved model performance. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Using machine learning approaches, we show that insulin requirement risk can be modestly well predicted by predominantly clinical variables. Inclusion of molecular markers improves the prognostic performance beyond that of clinical variables by up to 5%. Such prognostic models could be useful for identifying people with diabetes at high risk of progressing quickly to treatment intensification. DATA AVAILABILITY: Summary statistics of lipidomic, proteomic and metabolomic data are available from a Shiny dashboard at https://rhapdata-app.vital-it.ch .

Circulating metabolomic markers linking diabetic kidney disease and incident cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: analyses from the Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to describe the metabolome in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and its association with incident CVD in type 2 diabetes, and identify prognostic biomarkers. METHODS: From a prospective cohort of individuals with type 2 diabetes, baseline sera (N=1991) were quantified for 170 metabolites using NMR spectroscopy with median 5.2 years of follow-up. Associations of chronic kidney disease (CKD, eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) or severely increased albuminuria with each metabolite were examined using linear regression, adjusted for confounders and multiplicity. Associations between DKD (CKD or severely increased albuminuria)-related metabolites and incident CVD were examined using Cox regressions. Metabolomic biomarkers were identified and assessed for CVD prediction and replicated in two independent cohorts. RESULTS: At false discovery rate (FDR)<0.05, 156 metabolites were associated with DKD (151 for CKD and 128 for severely increased albuminuria), including apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins, HDL, fatty acids, phenylalanine, tyrosine, albumin and glycoprotein acetyls. Over 5.2 years of follow-up, 75 metabolites were associated with incident CVD at FDR<0.05. A model comprising age, sex and three metabolites (albumin, triglycerides in large HDL and phospholipids in small LDL) performed comparably to conventional risk factors (C statistic 0.765 vs 0.762, p=0.893) and adding the three metabolites further improved CVD prediction (C statistic from 0.762 to 0.797, p=0.014) and improved discrimination and reclassification. The 3-metabolite score was validated in independent Chinese and Dutch cohorts. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Altered metabolomic signatures in DKD are associated with incident CVD and improve CVD risk stratification.

Genomics Research of Lifetime Depression in the Netherlands: The BIObanks Netherlands Internet Collaboration (BIONIC) Project.

In this cohort profile article we describe the lifetime major depressive disorder (MDD) database that has been established as part of the BIObanks Netherlands Internet Collaboration (BIONIC). Across the Netherlands we collected data on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) lifetime MDD diagnosis in 132,850 Dutch individuals. Currently, N = 66,684 of these also have genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. We initiated this project because the complex genetic basis of MDD requires large population-wide studies with uniform in-depth phenotyping. For standardized phenotyping we developed the LIDAS (LIfetime Depression Assessment Survey), which then was used to measure MDD in 11 Dutch cohorts. Data from these cohorts were combined with diagnostic interview depression data from 5 clinical cohorts to create a dataset of N = 29,650 lifetime MDD cases (22%) meeting DSM-5 criteria and 94,300 screened controls. In addition, genomewide genotype data from the cohorts were assembled into a genomewide association study (GWAS) dataset of N = 66,684 Dutch individuals (25.3% cases). Phenotype data include DSM-5-based MDD diagnoses, sociodemographic variables, information on lifestyle and BMI, characteristics of depressive symptoms and episodes, and psychiatric diagnosis and treatment history. We describe the establishment and harmonization of the BIONIC phenotype and GWAS datasets and provide an overview of the available information and sample characteristics. Our next step is the GWAS of lifetime MDD in the Netherlands, with future plans including fine-grained genetic analyses of depression characteristics, international collaborations and multi-omics studies.

Apolipoprotein-CIII O-Glycosylation Is Associated with Micro- and Macrovascular Complications of Type 2 Diabetes.

Apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII) inhibits the clearance of triglycerides from circulation and is associated with an increased risk of diabetes complications. It exists in four main proteoforms: O-glycosylated variants containing either zero, one, or two sialic acids and a non-glycosylated variant. O-glycosylation may affect the metabolic functions of apo-CIII. We investigated the associations of apo-CIII glycosylation in blood plasma, measured by mass spectrometry of the intact protein, and genetic variants with micro- and macrovascular complications (retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy, cardiovascular disease) of type 2 diabetes in a DiaGene study (n = 1571) and the Hoorn DCS cohort (n = 5409). Mono-sialylated apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII1) was associated with a reduced risk of retinopathy (ß = -7.215, 95% CI -11.137 to -3.294) whereas disialylated apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII2) was associated with an increased risk (ß = 5.309, 95% CI 2.279 to 8.339). A variant of the GALNT2-gene (rs4846913), previously linked to lower apo-CIII0a, was associated with a decreased prevalence of retinopathy (OR = 0.739, 95% CI 0.575 to 0.951). Higher apo-CIII1 levels were associated with neuropathy (ß = 7.706, 95% CI 2.317 to 13.095) and lower apo-CIII0a with macrovascular complications (ß = -9.195, 95% CI -15.847 to -2.543). In conclusion, apo-CIII glycosylation was associated with the prevalence of micro- and macrovascular complications of diabetes. Moreover, a variant in the GALNT2-gene was associated with apo-CIII glycosylation and retinopathy, suggesting a causal effect. The findings facilitate a molecular understanding of the pathophysiology of diabetes complications and warrant consideration of apo-CIII glycosylation as a potential target in the prevention of diabetes complications.

Altered blood gene expression in the obesity-related type 2 diabetes cluster may be causally involved in lipid metabolism: a Mendelian randomisation study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to identify differentially expressed long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) and mRNAs in whole blood of people with type 2 diabetes across five different clusters: severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD), severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD), mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD), mild diabetes (MD) and mild diabetes with high HDL-cholesterol (MDH). This was to increase our understanding of different molecular mechanisms underlying the five putative clusters of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Participants in the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort were clustered based on age, BMI, HbA1c, C-peptide and HDL-cholesterol. Whole blood RNA-seq was used to identify differentially expressed lncRNAs and mRNAs in a cluster compared with all others. Differentially expressed genes were validated in the Innovative Medicines Initiative DIabetes REsearCh on patient straTification (IMI DIRECT) study. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) for differentially expressed RNAs were obtained from a publicly available dataset. To estimate the causal effects of RNAs on traits, a two-sample Mendelian randomisation analysis was performed using public genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. RESULTS: Eleven lncRNAs and 175 mRNAs were differentially expressed in the MOD cluster, the lncRNA AL354696.2 was upregulated in the SIDD cluster and GPR15 mRNA was downregulated in the MDH cluster. mRNAs and lncRNAs that were differentially expressed in the MOD cluster were correlated among each other. Six lncRNAs and 120 mRNAs validated in the IMI DIRECT study. Using two-sample Mendelian randomisation, we found 52 mRNAs to have a causal effect on anthropometric traits (n=23) and lipid metabolism traits (n=10). GPR146 showed a causal effect on plasma HDL-cholesterol levels (p = 2×10-15), without evidence for reverse causality. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Multiple lncRNAs and mRNAs were found to be differentially expressed among clusters and particularly in the MOD cluster. mRNAs in the MOD cluster showed a possible causal effect on anthropometric traits, lipid metabolism traits and blood cell fractions. Together, our results show that individuals in the MOD cluster show aberrant RNA expression of genes that have a suggested causal role on multiple diabetes-relevant traits.

IgG N-glycans are associated with prevalent and incident complications of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Inflammation is important in the development of type 2 diabetes complications. The N-glycosylation of IgG influences its role in inflammation. To date, the association of plasma IgG N-glycosylation with type 2 diabetes complications has not been extensively investigated. We hypothesised that N-glycosylation of IgG may be related to the development of complications of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In three independent type 2 diabetes cohorts, plasma IgG N-glycosylation was measured using ultra performance liquid chromatography (DiaGene n = 1815, GenodiabMar n = 640) and mass spectrometry (Hoorn Diabetes Care Study n = 1266). We investigated the associations of IgG N-glycosylation (fucosylation, galactosylation, sialylation and bisection) with incident and prevalent nephropathy, retinopathy and macrovascular disease using Cox- and logistic regression, followed by meta-analyses. The models were adjusted for age and sex and additionally for clinical risk factors. RESULTS: IgG galactosylation was negatively associated with prevalent and incident nephropathy and macrovascular disease after adjustment for clinical risk factors. Sialylation was negatively associated with incident diabetic nephropathy after adjustment for clinical risk factors. For incident retinopathy, similar associations were found for galactosylation, adjusted for age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that IgG N-glycosylation, particularly galactosylation and to a lesser extent sialylation, is associated with a higher prevalence and future development of macro- and microvascular complications of diabetes. These findings indicate the predictive potential of IgG N-glycosylation in diabetes complications and should be analysed further in additional large cohorts to obtain the power to solidify these conclusions.

Apolipoprotein-CIII O-Glycosylation, a Link between GALNT2 and Plasma Lipids.

Apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII) is involved in triglyceride-rich lipoprotein metabolism and linked to beta-cell damage, insulin resistance, and cardiovascular disease. Apo-CIII exists in four main proteoforms: non-glycosylated (apo-CIII0a), and glycosylated apo-CIII with zero, one, or two sialic acids (apo-CIII0c, apo-CIII1 and apo-CIII2). Our objective is to determine how apo-CIII glycosylation affects lipid traits and type 2 diabetes prevalence, and to investigate the genetic basis of these relations with a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on apo-CIII glycosylation. We conducted GWAS on the four apo-CIII proteoforms in the DiaGene study in people with and without type 2 diabetes (n = 2318). We investigated the relations of the identified genetic loci and apo-CIII glycosylation with lipids and type 2 diabetes. The associations of the genetic variants with lipids were replicated in the Diabetes Care System (n = 5409). Rs4846913-A, in the GALNT2-gene, was associated with decreased apo-CIII0a. This variant was associated with increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and decreased triglycerides, while high apo-CIII0a was associated with raised high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and triglycerides. Rs67086575-G, located in the IFT172-gene, was associated with decreased apo-CIII2 and with hypertriglyceridemia. In line, apo-CIII2 was associated with low triglycerides. On a genome-wide scale, we confirmed that the GALNT2-gene plays a major role i O-glycosylation of apolipoprotein-CIII, with subsequent associations with lipid parameters. We newly identified the IFT172/NRBP1 region, in the literature previously associated with hypertriglyceridemia, as involved in apolipoprotein-CIII sialylation and hypertriglyceridemia. These results link genomics, glycosylation, and lipid metabolism, and represent a key step towards unravelling the importance of O-glycosylation in health and disease.

Assessment of the bi-directional relationship between blood mitochondrial DNA copy number and type 2 diabetes mellitus: a multivariable-adjusted regression and Mendelian randomisation study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Mitochondrial dysfunction, which can be approximated by blood mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNA-CN), has been implicated in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Thus far, however, insights from prospective cohort studies and Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses on this relationship are limited. We assessed the association between blood mtDNA-CN and incident type 2 diabetes using multivariable-adjusted regression analyses, and the associations between blood mtDNA-CN and type 2 diabetes and BMI using bi-directional MR. METHODS: Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between blood mtDNA-CN and incident type 2 diabetes in 285,967 unrelated European individuals from UK Biobank free of type 2 diabetes at baseline. Additionally, a cross-sectional analysis was performed to investigate the association between blood mtDNA-CN and BMI. We also assessed the potentially causal relationship between blood mtDNA-CN and type 2 diabetes (N=898,130 from DIAGRAM, N=215,654 from FinnGen) and BMI (N=681,275 from GIANT) using bi-directional two-sample MR. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.87 years, 15,111 participants developed type 2 diabetes. Participants with a higher level of blood mtDNA-CN are at lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes (HR 0.90 [95% CI 0.89, 0.92]). After additional adjustment for BMI and other confounders, these results attenuated moderately and remained present. The multivariable-adjusted cross-sectional analyses showed that higher blood mtDNA-CN was associated with lower BMI (-0.12 [95% CI -0.14, -0.10]) kg/m2. In the bi-directional MR analyses, we found no evidence for causal associations between blood mtDNA-CN and type 2 diabetes, and blood mtDNA-CN and BMI in either direction. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The results from the present study indicate that the observed association between low blood mtDNA-CN and higher risk of type 2 diabetes is likely not causal.

Diabetes risk loci-associated pathways are shared across metabolic tissues.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Numerous genome-wide association studies have been performed to understand the influence of genetic variation on type 2 diabetes etiology. Many identified risk variants are located in non-coding and intergenic regions, which complicates understanding of how genes and their downstream pathways are influenced. An integrative data approach will help to understand the mechanism and consequences of identified risk variants. METHODS: In the current study we use our previously developed method CONQUER to overlap 403 type 2 diabetes risk variants with regulatory, expression and protein data to identify tissue-shared disease-relevant mechanisms. RESULTS: One SNP rs474513 was found to be an expression-, protein- and metabolite QTL. Rs474513 influenced LPA mRNA and protein levels in the pancreas and plasma, respectively. On the pathway level, in investigated tissues most SNPs linked to metabolism. However, in eleven of the twelve tissues investigated nine SNPs were linked to differential expression of the ribosome pathway. Furthermore, seven SNPs were linked to altered expression of genes linked to the immune system. Among them, rs601945 was found to influence multiple HLA genes, including HLA-DQA2, in all twelve tissues investigated. CONCLUSION: Our results show that in addition to the classical metabolism pathways, other pathways may be important to type 2 diabetes that show a potential overlap with type 1 diabetes.

Replication and cross-validation of type 2 diabetes subtypes based on clinical variables: an IMI-RHAPSODY study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Five clusters based on clinical characteristics have been suggested as diabetes subtypes: one autoimmune and four subtypes of type 2 diabetes. In the current study we replicate and cross-validate these type 2 diabetes clusters in three large cohorts using variables readily measured in the clinic. METHODS: In three independent cohorts, in total 15,940 individuals were clustered based on age, BMI, HbA1c, random or fasting C-peptide, and HDL-cholesterol. Clusters were cross-validated against the original clusters based on HOMA measures. In addition, between cohorts, clusters were cross-validated by re-assigning people based on each cohort's cluster centres. Finally, we compared the time to insulin requirement for each cluster. RESULTS: Five distinct type 2 diabetes clusters were identified and mapped back to the original four All New Diabetics in Scania (ANDIS) clusters. Using C-peptide and HDL-cholesterol instead of HOMA2-B and HOMA2-IR, three of the clusters mapped with high sensitivity (80.6-90.7%) to the previously identified severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD), severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD) and mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD) clusters. The previously described ANDIS mild age-related diabetes (MARD) cluster could be mapped to the two milder groups in our study: one characterised by high HDL-cholesterol (mild diabetes with high HDL-cholesterol [MDH] cluster), and the other not having any extreme characteristic (mild diabetes [MD]). When these two milder groups were combined, they mapped well to the previously labelled MARD cluster (sensitivity 79.1%). In the cross-validation between cohorts, particularly the SIDD and MDH clusters cross-validated well, with sensitivities ranging from 73.3% to 97.1%. SIRD and MD showed a lower sensitivity, ranging from 36.1% to 92.3%, where individuals shifted from SIRD to MD and vice versa. People belonging to the SIDD cluster showed the fastest progression towards insulin requirement, while the MDH cluster showed the slowest progression. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Clusters based on C-peptide instead of HOMA2 measures resemble those based on HOMA2 measures, especially for SIDD, SIRD and MOD. By adding HDL-cholesterol, the MARD cluster based upon HOMA2 measures resulted in the current clustering into two clusters, with one cluster having high HDL levels. Cross-validation between cohorts showed generally a good resemblance between cohorts. Together, our results show that the clustering based on clinical variables readily measured in the clinic (age, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol, BMI and C-peptide) results in informative clusters that are representative of the original ANDIS clusters and stable across cohorts. Adding HDL-cholesterol to the clustering resulted in the identification of a cluster with very slow glycaemic deterioration.

NACHO: an R package for quality control of NanoString nCounter data.

SUMMARY: The NanoStringTM nCounter® is a platform for the targeted quantification of expression data in biofluids and tissues. While software by the manufacturer is available in addition to third parties packages, they do not provide a complete quality control (QC) pipeline. Here, we present NACHO ('NAnostring quality Control dasHbOard'), a comprehensive QC R-package. The package consists of three subsequent steps: summarize, visualize and normalize. The summarize function collects all the relevant data and stores it in a tidy format, the visualize function initiates a dashboard with plots of the relevant QC outcomes. It contains QC metrics that are measured by default by the manufacturer, but also calculates other insightful measures, including the scaling factors that are needed in the normalization step. In this normalization step, different normalization methods can be chosen to optimally preprocess data. Together, NACHO is a comprehensive method that optimizes insight and preprocessing of nCounter® data. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: NACHO is available as an R-package on CRAN and the development version on GitHub https://github.com/mcanouil/NACHO. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Predicting and elucidating the etiology of fatty liver disease: A machine learning modeling and validation study in the IMI DIRECT cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is highly prevalent and causes serious health complications in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). Early diagnosis of NAFLD is important, as this can help prevent irreversible damage to the liver and, ultimately, hepatocellular carcinomas. We sought to expand etiological understanding and develop a diagnostic tool for NAFLD using machine learning. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We utilized the baseline data from IMI DIRECT, a multicenter prospective cohort study of 3,029 European-ancestry adults recently diagnosed with T2D (n = 795) or at high risk of developing the disease (n = 2,234). Multi-omics (genetic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic) and clinical (liver enzymes and other serological biomarkers, anthropometry, measures of beta-cell function, insulin sensitivity, and lifestyle) data comprised the key input variables. The models were trained on MRI-image-derived liver fat content (<5% or ≥5%) available for 1,514 participants. We applied LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) to select features from the different layers of omics data and random forest analysis to develop the models. The prediction models included clinical and omics variables separately or in combination. A model including all omics and clinical variables yielded a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROCAUC) of 0.84 (95% CI 0.82, 0.86; p < 0.001), which compared with a ROCAUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.83; p < 0.001) for a model including 9 clinically accessible variables. The IMI DIRECT prediction models outperformed existing noninvasive NAFLD prediction tools. One limitation is that these analyses were performed in adults of European ancestry residing in northern Europe, and it is unknown how well these findings will translate to people of other ancestries and exposed to environmental risk factors that differ from those of the present cohort. Another key limitation of this study is that the prediction was done on a binary outcome of liver fat quantity (<5% or ≥5%) rather than a continuous one. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we developed several models with different combinations of clinical and omics data and identified biological features that appear to be associated with liver fat accumulation. In general, the clinical variables showed better prediction ability than the complex omics variables. However, the combination of omics and clinical variables yielded the highest accuracy. We have incorporated the developed clinical models into a web interface (see: https://www.predictliverfat.org/) and made it available to the community. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03814915.

The endothelial function biomarker soluble E-selectin is associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Plasma soluble E-selectin (sE-selectin) is a frequently used biomarker of systemic endothelial dysfunction. The present study explored the relationship between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and plasma sE-selectin levels. METHODS: Expression of E-selectin in liver, visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and muscle was studied in relation to plasma sE-selectin in severely obese individuals (n = 74). The course of hepatic E-selectin expression in relation to hepatic steatosis and inflammation was examined in C57BL/6J LDLR-/- mice on a Western-type diet. The relationship between biomarkers of NAFLD, that is, plasma aminotransferase (ALT) and NAFLD susceptibility genes (rs738409 [PNPLA3] and rs1260326 [GCKR]), and plasma sE-selectin was studied in the combined CODAM (n = 571) and Hoorn (n = 694) studies. RESULTS: E-selectin expression in liver, not VAT or muscle, was associated with plasma sE-selectin in severely obese individuals (ß = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.05-0.47). NAFLD severity was associated with hepatic E-selectin expression (P = .02) and plasma sE-selectin (P = .003). LDLR-/- mice on a Western-type diet displayed increased hepatic E-selectin expression that followed the same course as hepatic inflammation, but not steatosis. In the CODAM study, plasma ALT was associated with plasma sE-selectin, independent of potential confounders (ß = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.16-0.34). Both rs738409 and rs1260326 were associated with higher plasma sE-selectin in the combined CODAM and Hoorn studies (P = .01 and P = .004 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD and related markers are associated with higher expression of hepatic E-selectin and higher levels of plasma sE-selectin. Further studies are required to investigate the role of E-selectin in the pathogenesis of NAFLD and the applicability of sE-selectin as a plasma biomarker of NAFLD/NASH.

Visit-to-visit variability of glycemia and vascular complications: the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort.

BACKGROUND: Glycemic variation has been suggested to be a risk factor for diabetes-related complications. Previous studies did not address confounding of diabetes duration, number of visits and length of follow-up. Here, we characterize glycemic variability over time and whether its relation to diabetes-related complications and mortality is independent from diabetes- and follow-up duration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Individuals with type 2 diabetes (n = 6770) from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort were included in this study. The coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated over 5-year sliding intervals. People divided in quintiles based on their CV. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the role of glycemic CV as risk factor in diabetes-related complications and mortality. RESULTS: The coefficient of variation of glucose (FG-CV) increased with time, in contrast to HbA1c (HbA1c-CV). People with a high FG-CV were those with an early age of diabetes onset (ΔQ5-Q1 = - 2.39 years), a higher BMI (ΔQ5-Q1 = + 0.92 kg/m2), an unfavorable lipid profile, i.e. lower levels of HDL-C (ΔQ5-Q1 = - 0.06 mmol/mol) and higher triglycerides (ΔQ5-Q1 =+ 1.20 mmol/mol). People with the highest FG-CV in the first 5-year interval showed an increased risk of insulin initiation, retinopathy, macrovascular complications and mortality independent of mean glycemia, classical risk factors and medication use. For HbA1c, the associations were weaker and less consistent. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with a higher FG-CV have an unfavorable metabolic profile and have an increased risk of developing micro- and macrovascular complications and mortality. The association of HbA1c-CV with metabolic outcomes and complications was less consistent in comparison to FG-CV.

HbA1c is associated with altered expression in blood of cell cycle- and immune response-related genes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Individuals with type 2 diabetes are heterogeneous in their glycaemic control as tracked by blood HbA1c levels. Here, we investigated the extent to which gene expression levels in blood reflect current and future HbA1c levels. METHODS: HbA1c levels at baseline and 1 and 2 year follow-up were compared with gene expression levels in 391 individuals with type 2 diabetes from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System Cohort (15,564 genes, RNA sequencing). The functions of associated baseline genes were investigated further using pathway enrichment analysis. Using publicly available data, we investigated whether the genes identified are also associated with HbA1c in the target tissues, muscle and pancreas. RESULTS: At baseline, 220 genes (1.4%) were associated with baseline HbA1c. Identified genes were enriched for cell cycle and complement system activation pathways. The association of 15 genes extended to the target tissues, muscle (n = 113) and pancreatic islets (n = 115). At follow-up, expression of 25 genes (0.16%) associated with 1 year HbA1c and nine genes (0.06%) with 2 year HbA1c. Five genes overlapped across all time points, and 18 additional genes between baseline and 1 year follow-up. After adjustment for baseline HbA1c, the number of significant genes at 1 and 2 years markedly decreased, suggesting that gene expression levels in whole blood reflect the current glycaemic state and but not necessarily the future glycaemic state. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: HbA1c levels in individuals with type 2 diabetes are associated with expression levels of genes that link to the cell cycle and complement system activation.

Metabolite ratios as potential biomarkers for type 2 diabetes: a DIRECT study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Circulating metabolites have been shown to reflect metabolic changes during the development of type 2 diabetes. In this study we examined the association of metabolite levels and pairwise metabolite ratios with insulin responses after glucose, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and arginine stimulation. We then investigated if the identified metabolite ratios were associated with measures of OGTT-derived beta cell function and with prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We measured the levels of 188 metabolites in plasma samples from 130 healthy members of twin families (from the Netherlands Twin Register) at five time points during a modified 3 h hyperglycaemic clamp with glucose, GLP-1 and arginine stimulation. We validated our results in cohorts with OGTT data (n = 340) and epidemiological case-control studies of prevalent (n = 4925) and incident (n = 4277) diabetes. The data were analysed using regression models with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: There were dynamic changes in metabolite levels in response to the different secretagogues. Furthermore, several fasting pairwise metabolite ratios were associated with one or multiple clamp-derived measures of insulin secretion (all p < 9.2 × 10-7). These associations were significantly stronger compared with the individual metabolite components. One of the ratios, valine to phosphatidylcholine acyl-alkyl C32:2 (PC ae C32:2), in addition showed a directionally consistent positive association with OGTT-derived measures of insulin secretion and resistance (p ≤ 5.4 × 10-3) and prevalent type 2 diabetes (ORVal_PC ae C32:2 2.64 [ß 0.97 ± 0.09], p = 1.0 × 10-27). Furthermore, Val_PC ae C32:2 predicted incident diabetes independent of established risk factors in two epidemiological cohort studies (HRVal_PC ae C32:2 1.57 [ß 0.45 ± 0.06]; p = 1.3 × 10-15), leading to modest improvements in the receiver operating characteristics when added to a model containing a set of established risk factors in both cohorts (increases from 0.780 to 0.801 and from 0.862 to 0.865 respectively, when added to the model containing traditional risk factors + glucose). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this study we have shown that the Val_PC ae C32:2 metabolite ratio is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes and measures of insulin secretion and resistance. The observed effects were stronger than that of the individual metabolites and independent of known risk factors.

A SNP panel for identification of DNA and RNA specimens.

BACKGROUND: SNP panels that uniquely identify an individual are useful for genetic and forensic research. Previously recommended SNP panels are based on DNA profiles and mostly contain intragenic SNPs. With the increasing interest in RNA expression profiles, we aimed for establishing a SNP panel for both DNA and RNA-based genotyping. RESULTS: To determine a small set of SNPs with maximally discriminative power, genotype calls were obtained from DNA and blood-derived RNA sequencing data belonging to healthy, geographically dispersed, Dutch individuals. SNPs were selected based on different criteria like genotype call rate, minor allele frequency, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and linkage disequilibrium. A panel of 50 SNPs was sufficient to identify an individual uniquely: the probability of identity was 6.9 × 10- 20 when assuming no family relations and 1.2 × 10- 10 when accounting for the presence of full sibs. The ability of the SNP panel to uniquely identify individuals on DNA and RNA level was validated in an independent population dataset. The panel is applicable to individuals from European descent, with slightly lower power in non-Europeans. Whereas most of the genes containing the 50 SNPs are expressed in various tissues, our SNP panel needs optimization for other tissues than blood. CONCLUSIONS: This first DNA/RNA SNP panel will be useful to identify sample mix-ups in biomedical research and for assigning DNA and RNA stains in crime scenes to unique individuals.

Genome-wide association study of serum magnesium in type 2 diabetes.

People with type 2 diabetes have a tenfold higher prevalence of hypomagnesemia, which is suggested to be caused by low dietary magnesium intake, medication use, and genetics. This study aims to identify the genetic loci that influence serum magnesium concentration in 3466 people with type 2 diabetes. The GWAS models were adjusted for age, sex, eGFR, and HbA1c. Associated traits were identified using publicly available data from GTEx consortium, a human kidney eQTL atlas, and the Open GWAS database. The GWAS identified a genome-wide significant locus in TAF3 (p = 2.9 × 10-9) in people with type 2 diabetes. In skeletal muscle, loci located in TAF3 demonstrate an eQTL link to ATP5F1C, a gene that is involved in the formation of Mg2+-ATP. Serum Mg2+ levels were associated with MUC1/TRIM46 (p = 2.9 × 10-7), SHROOM3 (p = 4.0 × 10-7), and SLC22A7 (p = 1.0 × 10-6) at nominal significance, which is in combination with the eQTL data suggesting that they are possible candidates for renal failure. Several genetic loci were in agreement with previous genomic studies which identified MUC1/TRIM46 (Pmeta = 6.9 × 10-29, PQ = 0.81) and SHROOM3 (Pmeta = 2.9 × 10-27, PQ = 0.04) to be associated with serum Mg2+ in the general population. In conclusion, serum magnesium concentrations are associated with genetic variability around the regions of TAF3, MUC1/TRIM46, SHROOM3, and SLC22A7 in type 2 diabetes.

Potential Value of Identifying Type 2 Diabetes Subgroups for Guiding Intensive Treatment: A Comparison of Novel Data-Driven Clustering With Risk-Driven Subgroups.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact on lifetime health and economic outcomes of different methods of stratifying individuals with type 2 diabetes, followed by guideline-based treatment intensification targeting BMI and LDL in addition to HbA1c. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We divided 2,935 newly diagnosed individuals from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort into five Risk Assessment and Progression of Diabetes (RHAPSODY) data-driven clustering subgroups (based on age, BMI, HbA1c, C-peptide, and HDL) and four risk-driven subgroups by using fixed cutoffs for HbA1c and risk of cardiovascular disease based on guidelines. The UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 estimated discounted expected lifetime complication costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for each subgroup and across all individuals. Gains from treatment intensification were compared with care as usual as observed in DCS. A sensitivity analysis was conducted based on Ahlqvist subgroups. RESULTS: Under care as usual, prognosis in the RHAPSODY data-driven subgroups ranged from 7.9 to 12.6 QALYs. Prognosis in the risk-driven subgroups ranged from 6.8 to 12.0 QALYs. Compared with homogenous type 2 diabetes, treatment for individuals in the high-risk subgroups could cost 22.0% and 25.3% more and still be cost effective for data-driven and risk-driven subgroups, respectively. Targeting BMI and LDL in addition to HbA1c might deliver up to 10-fold increases in QALYs gained. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-driven subgroups better discriminated prognosis. Both stratification methods supported stratified treatment intensification, with the risk-driven subgroups being somewhat better in identifying individuals with the most potential to benefit from intensive treatment. Irrespective of stratification approach, better cholesterol and weight control showed substantial potential for health gains.